THE NECESSARY AND UNAVOIDABLE
USA-CHINA UNDERSTANDING
AMAURY PORTO DE OLIVEIRA*
At the end of January, I had my last work meeting with Gilberto Dupas. He invited me to the IEEI, in Sao Paulo, to meet Clodoaldo Hugueney, who had just been appointed to head Brazil's embassy in China, and was interested in academic support for projects of Chinese- Brazilian cooperation. Hugueney was impressed with the breadth and richness of the analyses of international life happening in China, and the seriousness and professionalism of its rulers, giving me an opportunity to extend my conviction that the substance of the international game, in the next two or three decades, will consist on an unavoidable understanding between Americans and Chinese, seeking new definitions for the world order. Dupas agreed that one of those definitions involved deep changes in the energy matrix of the world economy.
My starting point for this reflection is that the world is witnessing the end of almost three centuries of Anglo-American leadership, and it needs to find new paradigmatic solutions for the social and economic demands of the planet. And what distinguishes an age, at this level, is first of all its energy matrix. The Bush administration dangerously hindered the USA's acceptance of the harsh reality that the healthy functioning of the Earth is threatened, because of the energy choices made in the Industrial Age. First by the British, burning fossil coal for transportation and manufacturing, and then, later, to produce electricity. Then by the Americans, in the 20th century, with the overwhelming use of hydrocarbons during the Engine Society. In the coming age, China is becoming, in absolute terms (given its huge population) a focus of global pollution even larger than Britain or the USA, although the USA are still unbeatable in income terms. But the fact remains that China has no choice. It can either resign itself to its backwardness or adopt the Anglo-American models. They have conceived a system considering their own welfare ambitions, with no room for the possible ambitions of others. China has taken the lead for those others, and there will be no effective way out for the crisis that has fallen over the world while the USA does not give China and the emerging nations some room.
Professor Francisco Teixeira, expert in future-oriented research, often states that the world is already in 2030, for the solutions that will define this medium term will be the ones taken in the next three or four years. This makes Barack Obama's first mandate a particularly important one, since he took over the White House just in time to talk with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiaboa, rulers whose background is strongly connected to the deep needs of the Chinese people and who, like Obama, are very sensitive to human and social problems. Definitive solutions will not be reached by 2012. It will be crucial, however, to unveil the path to be followed and to acquire the conviction that cooperation is necessary. To build internal support in both countries. In the USA, president Obama has been prodding Congress to effectively reinvent the American society he has to seek. In China, despite the often-repeated stereotype that authoritarian leaders simply give orders, there is plenty of debate. The Economist (3/21/09) dedicated a long article to the Chinese discussions. From "Maoflag", an extreme left group that sees the USA as an enemy to be exorcized, to liberal think tanks asking for greater integration in the market economy. Rulers struggle to keep balance, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has become known for seeking support on Adam Smith's ethical teachings.